Florida Housing Market Inventory Spike: What to Know

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Junk Home Buyers

posted on

June 29, 2024

Florida housing market inventory spike

Table of Contents

What’s behind the sudden increase in Florida’s housing market inventory? And how will it affect those looking to buy or sell homes?

In 2023, there’s a big change in Florida’s housing market. Especially in Western Florida, there are a lot more homes for sale. Cape Coral and North Port have seen a about 50% more homes listed during March compared to the previous year, as reported by Redfin1. This boost in available homes is linked to several factors, including more new homes being built, higher insurance costs, and increased property taxes.

Since 2023, homeowners in Florida have faced a 40% jump in insurance costs. And over the last three years, these costs have more than doubled1. But, this could still be a good time to jump into the market. With fewer buyers around, sellers are willing to negotiate on prices. This means good opportunities for those looking to buy a home.

Key Takeaways

  • Western Florida areas, including Cape Coral and North Port, saw home listings surge by 50% year over year in March1.
  • Florida’s homeowners insurance costs have skyrocketed by 40% year over year in 2023 and 102% over the past three years1.
  • New home constructions are contributing significantly to the increased inventory.
  • Increased property taxes are another factor influencing the housing market.
  • Reduced competition might make now an excellent time for buyers to negotiate better deals.

Introduction to the 2023 Florida Housing Market

In 2023, the Florida housing market is changing rapidly. Once a sunny paradise popular with retirees and the rich due to tax breaks, the market now offers more. This change comes from more homes available and adjusted prices. Last year, the sales of single-family homes slightly increased. Meanwhile, new listings went up a lot. The median home prices showed only a small increase last quarter23.

housing market statistics

The cost of living in Florida is rising, with insurance and taxes going up. This has led to more homes being put up for sale. In just one week, the number of single-family homes for sale went up by 14,0004. The average price for a home in Florida is now $390,052, a bit higher than last year. These changes might make it easier for buyers in many areas.

Some housing market reports show Florida’s home values have increased by 80% in five years. Tampa was the top market in the U.S. in 2022. Although there are many homes for sale, not many are being bought. This makes it a good time for buyers to get into the market.

Experts predict the home prices in the top 20 areas of Florida will keep rising, possibly by 9.7% by July 2024. In some areas, like Sarasota and Punta Gorda, there are more sellers and reduced prices. This is good news for buyers exploring new markets.

Overall, Florida’s housing market is in a state of change. The increase in homes for sale and changing prices offer unique chances for many. Keeping an eye on the housing supply in Florida is key for both homebuyers and investors.

What is Driving the Florida Housing Market Inventory Spike?

The rise in Florida’s housing inventory comes from multiple key reasons. Builders, insurance firms, and tax rules alter the market trends. They play a big part in why there are more homes to choose from now.

Influx of New Homes

Recently, the number of homes for sale has gone up a lot. Builders are working hard to keep up with the demand. For example, the Orlando area saw more than 10,000 homes listed, hitting this high for the first time since 20165. This was a nearly 100% jump. Florida as a whole had 3.4% more homes available in September 2023 than in the previous year6.

These numbers keep rising, offering more options for buyers. This affects the overall look of the housing market.

housing inventory analysis

Rising Insurance Costs

High insurance prices are also a big deal in Florida’s housing market. This is making it tougher for homeowners and buyers. Recent severe weather and rule changes have made insurance costs soar. This makes owning property even more expensive.

With fewer homes on the market and costs going up, house prices are also rising. All this leads to big financial stress for many people7.

Higher Property Taxes

Property taxes going up add to the problem. This makes housing even more costly for homeowners. Between July 2021 and July 2022, Florida had the biggest population growth in the US. The inflow of new people and higher taxes are making sellers rethink prices7. This is changing the property market’s look in Florida.

So, new homes, higher insurance, and taxes are shaping Florida’s property scene. By watching housing market trends and stock, you can better understand and deal with this market.

Impact of the Inventory Surge on Home Prices

In recent times, the number of homes for sale has risen dramatically in Florida. Places like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda have seen a 57% increase in homes up for sale8. So, sellers are trying to shine their listings brighter to attract buyers. There are now more homes available, and this is shifting power from sellers to buyers.

Sellers Cutting Asking Prices

Many sellers are adjusting their prices to stay ahead in today’s real estate market. Especially in cities such as Tampa, Cape Coral, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Lots of sellers here are dropping their prices9. These price cuts often happen with homes that have been on the market for a long time. It suggests that some prices might have been too high at the start8.

Competitive Market Dynamics

The sudden increase in available homes has made the market more competitive. Buyers are going after properties that have been listed for a bit. They are often offering about 10% less than the listed price9. This shows that it’s becoming a tough market for buyers. In March, home prices went up by 6.5% from the year before. This marked the ninth consecutive month of prices climbing10.

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Regional Variations in Inventory and Prices

The Florida real estate market varies a lot from region to region. For instance, Western Florida, including Cape Coral and North Port, has seen big changes. Here, inventory has shot up, making things different from elsewhere.

Western Florida: Cape Coral and North Port

Cape Coral and North Port have had a lot more homes added to the market. Part of the reason is the need for housing repairs after natural disasters. Areas like this are also managing to increase their prices despite the damaged homes left by hurricanes11. This creates a unique scene within Florida’s real estate market.

South Florida Market Differences

Now, let’s look at South Florida, which is quite the opposite. Miami, especially, sees a lot of interest from international buyers and investors11. Even with high mortgage rates and increasing insurance costs, home prices in Miami keep going up. This is thanks to a lot of overseas interest11. Compared to the West, South Florida doesn’t feel as much pressure on its housing supply.

Throughout the state, high insurance and mortgage rates at about 7% play a big role. These numbers make it harder for people to afford homes. They also change how different regions in Florida’s housing market behave1110.

Is it Really a Buyer’s Market Now?

The Florida housing market changes a lot. It varies greatly between single-family homes and condos. This affects who has the upper hand in buying.

Single-Family Homes

In Florida, active listings grew 57% from last year8. Even so, the single-family home market is still strong. There’s been a 16% rise in available homes moving it towards buyers12. But, single-family homes haven’t completely shifted to favoring buyers yet.

Despite more homes for sale, prices haven’t dropped a lot. National listings are still 37.7% lower compared to March 20198. This shows some areas are taking a while to bounce back after tough times. Yet, 30% of homes have had their prices cut, a sign sellers are paying attention12.

Condos

Condos, on the other hand, clearly favor buyers. Inventory has gone up by 18% in the last year, giving buyers more options13. This is confirmed by Zillow, showing great buyer markets in Florida and Texas13.

In Miami, the condo market shows interesting signs. Inventory is still lower than before the pandemic8. But, there are many homes with reduced prices, giving buyers more power. In April 2024, 22.4% of listings had their prices lowered, the most in six years13.

If you want to dive deeper, check out why Florida and Texas rank best for home buyers in Zillow’s latest findings. It offers more insights into these fast-evolving markets.

Florida’s real estate scene is evolving quickly, with new trends shaped by buyer shifts and investor interest. The market’s current state sees adjustments on both sides. These changes are sparked by various elements, impacting how people buy and invest.

Changing Buyer Preferences

Florida buyers are now looking for homes in areas with lower costs and better values. This adjustment shows a desire for smarter investments. For instance, South Florida has 17 cities where homes are valued at $1 million, showing growth14. Even with the rise in premium property interest, the concern over affordability is still strong. New projects like Cypress Crossing in Oakland Park reflect this with multiple apartment and retail spaces14.

Investors’ Perspective

Investors find Florida’s real estate promising, especially given Miami’s 69% reduced home-buying power since 1970. Similarly, Hialeah’s ability is down by 71%. Despite these drops, the condo market in the state, housing over 1.5 million units, offers strong rental potential15. Yet, high insurance and taxes must be factored in, especially in areas seeing property value spikes. The My Safe Florida Home program, financed with $200 million, aims to make investing safer, reducing risks15.

Factors Influencing Home Sellers’ Decisions

Sellers in Florida face many factors when setting their house prices. They need to make sure their prices are right, especially with the Florida’s median home price at $403,500. This price is expected to go up in 2024. Also, with mortgage rates at 6.94%, sellers are fortunate because rates are better than before16.

It’s crucial to sell your home in the right season. The best months are April, May, and June. In these months, the average selling price is $409,600. Also, the time it takes to sell a home is shorter, around 41-43 days16. Plus, listing your home on a Thursday could make it more visible. That’s because 21% of all homes go up for sale on that day16

Along with the timing, sellers need to be aware of costs like insurance and taxes. They should keep an eye on insurance rates and possible changes in property tax. These could affect their selling price. Predicted changes in mortgage rates for 2024 might force sellers to lower their prices or offer deals to stand out17. Even though new homes are being built, there are not enough because of a shortage of workers and the high cost of materials17.

Florida’s market is also affected by its growing population. This change brings fluctuations in home sale prices and the time homes spend on the market16. Sellers need to be flexible in their strategies. They should consider the growing needs of Millennials and Gen Z for affordable and mid-priced homes17.

The recent resolution of the NAR antitrust lawsuit might lead to changes in how brokers are paid. This change could influence how sellers deal with the market18.

The constant low supply of homes keeps demand and prices high. Sellers also hesitate to put their homes on the market because of their low mortgage rates. This lack of available homes is a problem. However, if mortgage rates drop, it might ease the pressure, keeping prices steady or perhaps lower18.

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How Rising Insurance Costs Affect Real Estate Transactions

The cost of homeowners insurance has shot up in Florida. Now, it costs three times more here than the national average. This makes it the most expensive place for home insurance in the U.S19. Such high prices are slowing down property sales.

Buyers are seeing their costs go up, thanks to pricier insurance. This makes the overall cost of owning a home go way up. Because of this, sellers might need to lower their prices or have their homes stay on the market longer. The increase in insurance prices has caused a Y% drop in Florida’s real estate activity20. Plus, with insurance costs going up by X% each year20, sales are lagging.

In Florida, the insurance market’s changes are influencing how people buy homes. Now, the roof’s age and condition are a big deal when negotiating prices. This tops the list of concerns for both buyers and sellers, changing how transactions happen.

Recently, Miami has seen condo sales drop by 9% even as new listings rise by 27%19. Clearly, the gap between what buyers can spend and the market’s offerings is widening. To learn more, check out the recent condo price data for 2024 in Florida.

This insurance issue isn’t just affecting people buying and selling homes. It’s also impacting big banks. Over 60 major banks in the U.S. stand to lose because of their investments in Florida’s real estate21. This risk could make things more complicated in the real estate sector.

In short, rising insurance costs in Florida are shaking up the real estate scene. They’re changing how much buyers can pay and what sellers should charge. This situation affects not just personal transactions but also the broader economy. To read more on how sellers and buyers are being affected, click here.

Florida’s Property Listings Increase: A Closer Look

In Florida, the real estate market has seen many more properties for sale this year. Places like Cape Coral and Fort Myers have had a big jump in the number of houses available. The listings there have gone up 57% compared to last year22. Statewide, listings are up by over 15%23. This shows we’re getting back to normal levels after the pandemic.

Active Listings Data

Florida’s property market has more houses up for sale due to recent disasters and market changes. After Hurricane Ian, the state saw more houses on the market because of the $112.9 billion in damage22. Also, as mortgage rates top 7%, more people are choosing to sell their homes, adding even more to inventory24.

Comparison with Pre-Pandemic Levels

The amount of houses for sale now compared to before the pandemic has changed a lot. Cities like Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville have seen a big increase. This growth in inventory is a big deal23. For example, in the Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island area, the median sale price went from $199,500 in March 2010 to $415,000 in March 2024. This shows how the number of houses on sale can affect prices24.

Now, the property market in Florida is becoming more even. Sales of single-family homes dropped by 0.5%, and condos and townhouses fell by nearly 9%23. But, with more houses to choose from, buyers can find more options. This is helping with the shortage we saw before.

The Role of Government Policies and Incentives

Government housing policies and incentives are key in changing the Florida housing market. They shape the market’s ups and downs. Understanding these can help with the recent increase in available homes.

In St. Petersburg, the number of homes for sale jumped by 60.6% from January to February 2024. This is much bigger than the 25.5% rise in Tampa25. Government rules and actions can help steady the real estate market during these increases.

Things like tax breaks for new homebuyers or developers can make more people join in and slow down the drop. For example, condo sales in St. Petersburg dropped by 27% in January, while new listings rose by 32%. This shows how important it is to have specific incentives25.

Meanwhile, in Tampa, condo sales fell by 9%, but new listings went up by 27%25. This points to the need for more incentives. These could help match the number of homes on the market with the demand. Also, keeping an eye on construction issues is crucial25.

Building a strong economic plan that includes detailed housing policies can win over investors. Even in 2022, with some economic worries, Florida stood as a top choice for investors26. Good policies can lower costs and make the market more reliable. This attracts more buyers and boosts the market’s health.

Learning from past disasters like the one in 2008, officials can make better help programs now. Back then, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) helped a lot. It kept the market from crashing, which was a big win for everyone27.

By making smart moves with housing rules and special incentives, we can steer the market well. This ensures it’s fair and good for all involved.

Expert Opinions on the Florida Housing Market Inventory Spike

The Florida housing market is showing a big increase in the number of homes available. This change in dynamics is being closely watched by experts and those in the real estate business. They’re sharing their thoughts on what’s causing these shifts.

Insights from Real Estate Economists

Economic experts have been looking at the big picture. They say the number of houses being resold is going up in Florida. This increase is expected to slow down the rise in home prices a bit18. In January, the median price for a home in all of Florida hit $404,100. This was up by 4.5% from the year before28. Places like Punta Gorda, though, saw their available homes go up by 149%. This had a big effect on how many homes were bought or sold28. Even with more homes available, the experts think the market will get better slowly. But, high inflation is stopping interest rates from falling, which could make loans cheaper18.

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Adding to the mix, mortgage rates are still high at about 7%. This situation is having a deep impact and is expected to last a little while longer18. The Federal Reserve, in charge of these rates, is keeping them high. This decision is affecting everyone involved in buying or selling homes4.

Realtors’ Perspectives

Realtors see the day-to-day of the market. They’ve noted that in Jacksonville, sales were down over 27% in January from the year before. House prices also dropped by 6.5%28. In Sarasota and Punta Gorda, more homes are available but fewer are being bought. This change means they have to do business in a new way4. They mention the obvious rise in available homes, but they say there’s still not enough. This is because some homeowners are keeping their homes due to their low mortgage rates, causing an uneven match between those who want to buy and how many are available18.

Realtors are also adapting to changes from a recent legal case. This case involves how real estate broker commissions are set. The expected changes will likely change the buying and selling process in Florida’s market18.

Both real estate economists and realtors are sure of one thing: a big market crash is not on the horizon. But to make things stable, mortgage rates need to change and significantly more homes need to become available18.

Conclusion

Wrapping up our detailed housing market update, Florida’s market is in a unique situation. It’s facing changes in stock and tough economic issues. Florida is now on top in the country with a 34% rise in homes for sale compared to last year29. This big increase means prices are changing, and homes are taking longer to sell, like in Naples, where the wait is now 53 days30.

Each area in Florida is also different. Cape Coral, for example, had almost double the homes for sale with a 99.3% jump31. Even places like Tampa-St. Petersburg and Punta Gorda have more homes available than usual29. This shows the market is getting cooler, leading about 40% of sellers in spots like North Port and Tampa to drop their prices30. Both buyers and sellers need to think carefully about their moves.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on those buying with cash and making big deals. They are influencing market growth29. And looking ahead, home sales in the South are predicted to go up by 7% by the end of 2024, despite economic issues29. All in all, the complex mix of stock changes, local differences, and economic elements paints a varied scene for Florida’s real estate. Staying updated and flexible is key for those involved.

  1. https://fortune.com/2024/04/25/florida-inventory-levels-home-prices-redfin-report/ – Now might be the time to move to Florida as inventory levels surge and sellers slash prices
  2. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/median-home-prices-new-listings-move-higher-in-florida/ – Median home prices, new listings move higher in Florida – HousingWire
  3. https://medium.com/@cambridgehomeloan/housing-market-trends-in-florida-2023-2024-02ba75a1afcd – Housing Market Trends in Florida 2023–2024
  4. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/inventory/ – Inventory growth is slowing. Are sellers backing off? – HousingWire
  5. https://www.orlandorealtors.org/housingmarketnarrative – Orlando Real Estate Housing Market Narrative
  6. https://elite100agents.com/floridas-hot-housing-markets-in-2024-4-key-locations-to-watch/ – Florida’s Hot Housing Markets in 2024: 4 Key Locations to Watch – Elite 100 Agents
  7. https://thecapitolist.com/florida-home-prices-way-up-but-nobody-wants-to-cash-in/ – Florida home prices way up, but nobody wants to cash in
  8. https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-inventory-rising-across-vast-majority-countryjust-take-look-map – Housing inventory is rising across the vast majority of the country—just take a look at this map
  9. https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/05/38590354/florida-sellers-slash-prices-as-buyers-bypass-the-state-entirely-view-it-as-overpriced-and-undervalu – Florida Sellers Slash Prices As Buyers Bypass The State Entirely — View It As Overpriced And Undervalued With Extreme Insurance Rates
  10. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/housing-market-predictions/ – Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again?
  11. https://www.naplesed.com/post/when-will-the-florida-housing-market-crash-predictions – When Will the Florida Housing Market Crash? Insights, Predictions
  12. https://fortune.com/2024/05/26/housing-market-outlook-buyers-vs-sellers-lower-home-prices-inventory-supply/ – Buyers are gaining the upper hand in the housing market as top real estate CEO warns sellers on high asking prices: ‘The sharks come out, and it will hurt you even more’
  13. https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-05-15-Florida,-Texas-rank-best-for-home-buyers-in-new-Zillow-index – Florida, Texas rank best for home buyers in new Zillow index
  14. https://www.floridatrend.com/article/40068/floridas-property-insurance-market-seems-to-be-improving – Florida’s property insurance market seems to be improving
  15. https://www.floridatrend.com/article/39875/florida-officials-brainstorm-to-find-ways-to-increase-housing-stock-and-decrease-costs – Florida officials brainstorm to find ways to increase housing stock and decrease costs
  16. https://www.houzeo.com/blog/best-time-to-sell-a-house-in-florida/ – Is NOW the Best Time to Sell a House in Florida? | Houzeo
  17. https://www.theownteam.com/blog/house-pricing-forecast-for-2024-what-to-expect-in-the-real-estate-market/ – House Pricing Forecast for 2024: What to Expect in the Real Estate Market
  18. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/shocking-2024-housing-predictions-mortgage-rates-crash-gonzalez-cwdfe – Shocking 2024 Housing Predictions: Will Mortgage Rates Crash the Market? Find Out Now!
  19. https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/miami-beach/real-estate-news-florida-condo-price-data-for-2024-redfin-florida-condo-report-miami-2024-condo-price-data-tampa-condo-prices-orlando-condo-sales-data-14042.php – Florida Condo Prices Falling as Insurance and HOA Fees Skyrocket
  20. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-sellers-slash-prices-buyers-180016652.html – Florida Sellers Slash Prices As Buyers Bypass The State Entirely — View It As Overpriced And Undervalued With Extreme Insurance Rates
  21. https://www.floridatrend.com/realestate – Clouds rising over banks? As interest rates stay high, FAU survey handicaps risks for lenders with big books of commercial loans
  22. https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/jbrec-northeast-housing-market-hot-floridas-housing-market-softening – JBREC: The Northeast housing market is hot, Florida’s housing market is softening
  23. https://www.newsweek.com/florida-homeowners-hit-housing-market-double-whammy-1915954 – Florida homeowners hit with housing market double whammy
  24. https://www.naplesed.com/post/is-the-florida-housing-market-in-a-bubble – Is the Florida Housing Market in a Bubble?
  25. https://avalongrouptampabay.com/floridas-rise-active-listings/ – Florida’s Rise in Active Listings – AVALON Group Real Estate Agents
  26. https://edcookrealestate.com/south-florida-real-estate-trends-2022/ – Real Estate Trends For South Florida In 2022 🔥 | Massive Growth!
  27. https://www.fastercapital.com/content/Housing-Market-Recovery–Shadow-Inventory-s-Role-in-the-Housing-Market-Recovery-Journey.html – Housing Market Recovery: Shadow Inventory s Role in the Housing Market Recovery Journey – FasterCapital
  28. https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-trouble-1874962 – Florida’s housing market is in trouble
  29. https://www.apexleadsource.com/the-truth-about-florida-home-prices-in-2024-are-we-facing-a-collapse/ – The Truth About Florida Home Prices in 2024: Are We Facing a Collapse?
  30. https://www.naplesed.com/post/navigating-the-unpredictable-waters-of-florida-s-real-estate-market-in-2024 – Navigating the Unpredictable Waters of Florida’s Real Estate Market in 2024
  31. https://www.aol.com/housing-inventory-florida-city-spiked-184036392.html – Housing Inventory in This Florida City Spiked Most, But Which in the Top 10 Are Cheapest?

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